The last time a Senate seat came open in Michigan, fewer than 20,000 votes separated Democrats from their victory in 2024 and what would have represented a dramatic end to a long running winning streak. 

Almost two years later, with another Senate seat at risk, the party is now facing a polarizing inflection point over how to win again in a far different political environment. The Aug. 4 primary race and a contentious Tuesday debate represents a bigger choice for Democratic voters:Who can actually beat a GOP opponent in November. And that choice comes with higher stakes than recent contests in New York and Colorado, where farther to the left contenders in U.S. House races don’t have a challenging general election awaiting them in the fall. 

“The one thing that I do is I win tough races,” said Rep. Haley Stevens, who also claimed during the debate that her Democratic rival, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, is attempting to become “a celebrity senator.” 

The public display showed how fraught the contest has become between the moderate and progressive factions within the left. 

“There’s a reason that both Chuck Schumer and Donald Trump don’t want to see me on the inside of the U.S. Senate, because I’m a threat to politics as usual,” said El-Sayed, who also countered that “we also don’t need politicians bought off by corporations.” 

The stakes are significant for Democrats. If they lose Michigan, their already narrow path to winning back the Senate from Republicans in this fall’s midterms would effectively be done in. The party likely has to hold purple seats like this one, then win back four seats from the GOP to take the majority through races that include redder parts of the country that have drifted away from Democrats in recent years. 

Losing in Michigan would only add to the likelihood that the GOP keeps control of the chamber for President Donald Trump’s final two years in the White House. 

Yet no Republican has won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan in more than 30 years. 

Less than a month before Michigan’s Senate primary, Stevens has the overwhelming advantage when it comes to outside spending supporting her run.

An MS NOW analysis of federal campaign finance records found that, so far, more than $23 million has been spent by super PACs and other well-funded organizations seeking to impact the outcome of the August 4 primary — outside of the candidates’ campaigns. 

Of that, roughly $19 million has been spent outright supporting Stevens. 

So far, the biggest spending group for Stevens is the United Democracy Project, a super PAC deeply associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. That outfit has spent close to $11 million in the race to date, federal campaign finance records show, all since the start of June. Another $9.6 million supporting Stevens has come from a group called A Stronger Michigan. That group came together only recently, according to disclosures. 

Stevens’ approach during Tuesday’s debate hinged on trying to describe El-Sayed as being the candidate Republicans see as more beatable in the fall, while arguing that she has a record of work in Congress that shows what she can bring to voters in Michigan if she wins. 

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“I am not someone trying to go viral and shouting into a bullhorn about problems. I am delivering. That is not something my opponent can say. He’s great at attacking,” Stevens said. 

And the tension that the Democratic party is moving farther to the left nationally, and in a way that could make the difference in Michigan’s Senate race, also played into Tuesday’s debate. It will likely continue to do so for weeks to come, at least. 

“If you want your politics dictated to you by AIPAC or Chuck Schumer, then I’m not your guy,” said El-Sayed. 

The actions of Israel’s government overseas is a major point of contention in national Democratic politics. Michigan’s Senate race reflects similar divisions. 

“I believe in international law,” El-Sayed said. “I believe we have to hold every country to international law, which means to me that we need to stop funding the Israeli military unilateral blank checks.” 

“I can say that Israel has a right to peacefully exist alongside the people of Palestine and in Gaza,” Stevens said, before taking issue with Israel’s prime minister.  “It is very clear that Mr. Netanyahu has not made us safer, has not brought us closer to peace, and he’s endangered Jews here in America and around the world.”

Whoever wins in August is set to face Republican Mike Rogers this fall. Rogers, a former congressman, was also the GOP’s standard bearer in the 2024 Senate race, when he ran behind Trump’s numbers and lost. 

But he may represent conservatives’ best opportunity to flip a Senate seat, given a tough midterm environment for the incumbent president’s party and concerns about candidate quality in a different presidential battleground down south in Georgia. 

Michigan is critical to Democrats ambitions of winning back the White House in 2028. And the cracks that have emerged in the party more broadly — between the Sen. Bernie Sanders’ movement backing El-Sayed and those allied with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is supporting Stevens — could influence how the state may be approached over the next several years.

Hunter Woodall

Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He’s reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and reported on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.

Chris Jansing