If history is any guide, Democrats have the advantage in the fall midterm elections.

In recent decades, the president’s party has almost always lost congressional seats, especially in a second term. Republicans are now facing additional headwinds from President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings and concerns about inflation.

But with four months until Election Day, it’s still too early to tell how favorable the environment will be for Democrats. A narrow House majority is one possibility, while a broader wave could also bring the Senate into play.

Most voters don’t begin paying close attention until after Labor Day, and major events can quickly reshape the political landscape. A sudden economic shift, an international crisis or scandal could all change the trajectory of the race. Already this week, allegations of sexual assault have roiled a key Senate race.

Another development has the potential to reshape the landscape: the Supreme Court ruling that political parties may coordinate more closely with candidates on campaign spending. The decision is expected to help both parties assert more control over the elections, but how that will affect individual races remains to be seen.

Still, many of the challenges facing Republicans are unlikely to disappear before November. Trump remains a polarizing figure, Congress has barely passed any major laws to brag about and there is little evidence that inflation or consumer prices will improve dramatically before voters cast their ballots. Even if Trump ends the war with Iran, helping steady oil markets, experts say it will take time for prices to drop to their prewar level.

Here’s where the races stand today, including Senate race rankings from MS NOW’s elections team.

The House: Democrats have the upper hand

Winning back the House is Democrats’ top objective. Control of the chamber would allow them to block most Republican legislation, conduct oversight hearings, issue subpoenas and investigate the Trump administration.

Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority, meaning Democrats need only a handful of wins to reclaim the speaker’s gavel.

Because of political polarization and aggressive redistricting in many states, there are only about three dozen genuinely competitive House districts nationwide. That means control of the chamber will likely be decided in a relatively small number of suburban swing districts in states such as New York, California, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Nebraska.

Most recent polls show Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by at least five points, which would mean a net gain of anywhere from 8 to 18 seats — more than enough to win control. But a recent Emerson College poll put Democrats with a 10-point lead among likely voters, which would mean they could pick up 15 to 25 seats for a more robust majority.