The Pentagon has told Congress the war in Iran cost $29 billion through mid-May. Outside experts think the real number could be two to three times higher — and so far, the Defense Department hasn’t explained why.

The conflict has led to the largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with more than 50,000 American troops stationed in the region. Nearly four months after the war started, the U.S. has fired thousands of munitions, dramatically depleting weapons stockpiles.

Defense Department officials told lawmakers that the war cost $11.3 billion over the first six days of fighting, and later estimated that approximately $25 billion was spent by the middle of May. But experts on defense spending say that number likely undercounts the real total by tens of billions of dollars, with independent assessments ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion.

Munitions were the single biggest expense in the department’s projections. But outside experts note that the Pentagon’s public estimates left out the cost of repairing damaged assets and resupplying stockpiles to prewar levels. Asked for a more detailed accounting, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers: “When it’s relevant and required, we will share it.”

That response has drawn bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have said the Pentagon is not being transparent about how the war is being funded.

A comprehensive analysis released Friday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank, found that munitions alone likely cost $25 billion, with long-range precision munitions and anti-missile munitions, like Tomahawks and Patriots, carrying the highest price tags. Repairing and replacing damaged military assets — along with rebuilding damaged U.S.-affiliated bases and facilities throughout the Middle East — could cost anywhere from $11 billion to $14 billion, according to the CSIS analysis. Separately, the Congressional Research Service reported that at least 42 fixed-wing or unmanned U.S. aircraft have been damaged or destroyed since the U.S. launched its strikes on Feb. 28.

The toll has been just as steep on America’s weapons reserves. The United States has now burned through one-third to one-half of its most critical munitions stockpiles, raising fears that the country has entered a “window of vulnerability” that could compromise its readiness for a future conflict elsewhere.

“The problem is for a conflict in the Western Pacific against China,” said Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at CSIS’ Defense and Security Department. “We were low on all of these munitions before the war, and of course now we’re even lower.”

Recommended

Priya Sridhar

Priya Sridhar is the Pentagon correspondent for MS NOW.