The U.S. and Iran are shooting again, the second (and larger) flare up since they signed a Memorandum of Understanding in June. 

The main point of contention is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for international trade that Iran blocked in response to the initial U.S.-Israel attack in February. The MOU reflects U.S. desperation to get ships flowing again, giving Iran economic benefits in exchange for Iran merely promising to “make arrangements … for the safe passage of commercial vessels,” without specifying what those arrangements are. Iran has consistently asserted it will control Hormuz and charge fees for passage, while the U.S., especially President Donald Trump, has been acting as if the strait is totally open and on a fast track back to prewar normal.

Except it clearly isn’t. More ships went through after the MOU, but even at peak it was fewer than half the daily prewar average. They avoided the middle of the strait, fearing mines, and Iran told them to travel by Iranian coastal waters and register with a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.” The U.S., for its part, encouraged ships to bypass Iran by hugging Oman’s coast on the opposite side. Iran shot at some ships near Oman to assert control, the U.S. shot at Iran to contest it, then back-and-forth retaliation followed. 

The fight could escalate or settle down again, but the underlying problem remains: a large gap between (1) the facts on the ground and the text of the MOU, and (2) the fantasy in Trump’s imagination. The U.S. government has been warped by an effort to pretend Trump’s make-believe is real, making peace impossible.

The U.S. lost the war Trump started, failing to achieve the president’s declared goals of regime change and unconditional surrender, or his fallback aim of forcing Iran to accept tight nuclear restrictions. The U.S. also failed to militarily prevent Iran from blocking Hormuz. The MOU amounts to American surrender, with de facto recognition of the Iranian regime, zero nuclear concessions — merely a promise to talk about it more in the future — and front-loaded economic benefits to Iran to open Hormuz, which was open prewar. Nevertheless, the U.S. president incessantly claims success.

Lying, delusional, indifferent to truth and just saying anything he thinks sounds good in the moment — whatever the reason Trump pretends an obvious loss is a win, the fact that he keeps doing it perpetuates the conflict and deepens the economic damage it’s causing.

It’s already hard to make a real agreement with the U.S. under the second Trump presidency, since his record of lies, lack of follow through and reneging on deals undermines America’s credibility. That goes double with Iran, since Trump reneged on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal — without cause, and launched an aggressive war that killed top Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei.

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Reaching a real peace agreement is even harder when the president of the United States keeps lying about the reality of the situation, and demanding that others do as well.

Trump repeatedly insists that Iran agreed to nuclear concessions, as he did on July 8 when he accused Iran of violating the MOU: “We make a deal, everyone’s agreed, no nuclear weapons.” But the text of the MOU punts the nuclear issue to be dealt with later.

He says the U.S. won’t give Iran any money, like Obama did. On June 18, he posted to Truth Social, “That’s Fake News! All there is for the U.S. is Success, Lower Oil Prices, and Victory” — but the MOU, in fact, promises Iran a lot more money, and not in exchange for verified nuclear restrictions like in the JCPOA, just for letting ships go through Hormuz.

He frequently claims, absurdly, that Iran “doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else.” And he berates the media for not going along with that, as if bullying them into generous coverage will make his fantasy real.

It’s an obvious lie, literally unbelievable (If Iran has no military capabilities, who is the U.S. shooting at?), the sort of lie that functions as an authoritarian loyalty test and display of dominance. That might appeal to Trump’s domestic base, maybe jawbone markets, but it doesn’t help the U.S. succeed with Iran. If anything, the president’s ongoing insistence on a transparent fiction is actively detrimental.

If Iran has no military capabilities, who is the U.S. shooting at?

To some extent, Trump’s public statements are a show for domestic audiences, but the Iranians know the president issues orders to the U.S. military. And Iran can see how the White House, Republican Party and right-wing media rally around whatever Trump says, even when it contradicts something he previously said. It’s also possible U.S. negotiators, including Vice President JD Vance, are lying to Trump, making concessions to Iran and saying the U.S. will honor them, then telling the U.S. president they got side deals with Iran that adhere closer to his fantasy.

Trump bragged that oil prices are back down, but that was a market reaction to the MOU, assuming the U.S. would honor it. Except in Trump’s fantasy, he lowered oil prices by forcing Iran into submission, so he feels less pressure to follow through on concessions since markets acted like things were fine. But with the new fighting, oil is rising again.

It’s not clear how or when this disruption will be resolved — meaning actually resolved, not just Trump saying it is and Wall Street buying it. The president appears out of ideas, and is rerunning moves that didn’t work before. (At least not in reality. They did great in Trump’s fantasy.)

The U.S. is bombing Iran again. But the original, larger aerial campaign failed to collapse the Iranian government or stop Iran from blocking Hormuz, so there’s no reason to expect a smaller bombing effort to succeed. 

In Trump’s fantasy narrative, his strength forced Iran to the table — with strength to a significant extent understood as performative bluster on TV or in internet posts — so he’s trying insults and threats again.

The situation in the Gulf is bad for the U.S., with Iran in a stronger position. The U.S. president’s response is to pretend it’s the opposite. As long as that persists, the conflict will remain unresolved.

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”