Why the process of choosing Lindsey Graham’s successor won’t be easy

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Sen. Lindsey Graham’s unexpected death over the weekend will have broad implications on Capitol Hill, and the effects will be felt quickly. The South Carolina Republican was poised to play an important role on a variety of pending measures — defense spending, Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination, new sanctions on Russia, et al. — and his sudden passing, coupled with Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell’s absence, adds new complexities to an already challenging dynamic.

What’s more, Graham chaired the Senate Budget Committee, which was also in the process of tackling several key issues, including pending spending bills that need to pass to avoid a government shutdown in the fall.

But that’s not the only complexity surrounding the late senator’s death.

Graham appeared well positioned to win a fifth term in the fall, which means there will now be two parallel processes unfolding simultaneously: one to fill his vacancy in the Senate in the short term, and another to replace him on the November ballot.

On the former, South Carolina’s outgoing Republican governor, Henry McMaster, will soon choose a replacement to serve out the final five months of Graham’s current term. Even this exercise won’t be entirely straightforward: McMaster could choose a caretaker, who’d serve the rest of the year with no further ambitions, or the governor could select a Republican who intends to run for the seat in the fall, effectively creating an appointed incumbent who’d have a leg up on would-be rivals.

For now, it’s not clear which way the governor is leaning, though McMaster reportedly met with Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette on Sunday to discuss the interim appointment. (Evette recently came up short in a GOP gubernatorial primary.) There’s been related chatter about Fox News host Trey Gowdy, who served as a South Carolina congressman for four terms, before retiring in 2018, and Darline Graham Nordone, the late senator’s sister.

We’ll learn soon enough about the governor’s plans, but in the meantime, the scramble is also on among those interested in replacing Graham on the 2026 ballot. There will be a weeklong filing period that begins on July 21, followed by an Aug. 11 special primary. If no one wins a majority, there will be an Aug. 25 runoff.

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