What El-Sayed’s likely primary win in Michigan means for the Democratic left
Abdul El-Sayed was vastly outspent. He didn’t have the backing of the Senate’s top Democrat and has lost in a statewide primary before. He ran a starkly progressive campaign in a state Donald Trump won narrowly two years ago.
In short, by the party’s own traditional measure of electability he had no business winning.
While votes are still being counted in the race and margins remain thin, El-Sayed entered Wednesday as Michigan’s likely Senate Democratic nominee after a contentious primary with Rep. Haley Stevens.
Progressives such as El-Sayed, in the Bernie Sanders mold, have angled for more influence in a party struggling to meet the moment. That’s an easy case to make in the bluest parts of the country.
It’s far harder in a state as politically divided as Michigan. With Sen. Gary Peters retiring, this is a seat Democrats have to hold in order to maintain a reasonable chance to flip control of the Senate this November. Trump won Michigan in 2024 by about 80,000 votes. No Republican has won a Senate race here in 30 years, but the margins have been close enough that no one in either party can treat the seat as safe.
El-Sayed is now on track to face Republican Mike Rogers in November. Rogers, a former mid-Michigan congressman, was also the GOP’s standard-bearer in the 2024 Senate race, when he lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by about 20,000 votes. But he may represent conservatives’ best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat, given a tough midterm environment for Trump’s party.
An MS NOW analysis of federal campaign finance records found that at least $59 million was spent by super PACs and other well-funded organizations seeking to sway the Democratic primary. Almost all of that money — at least $54 million — was either in support of Stevens or opposing El-Sayed.
An MS NOW analysis of federal campaign finance records found that at least $59 million was spent by super PACs and other well-funded organizations seeking to sway the Democratic primary. Almost all of that money — at least $54 million — was either in support of Stevens or opposing El-Sayed.
Roughly $5 million in outside money ran the other way, either helping El-Sayed or opposing Stevens. The leading Stevens supporter headed into the primary was the United Democracy Project, a super PAC deeply associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. That outfit spent more than $30 million, federal campaign finance records show.
If nothing else, Michigan’s results bring new questions about how to win, and be electable, in a primary versus the tests of a general election. The primary race proved to be close, reflecting that despite political anger among the Democratic base, winning in a presidential battleground state comes with challenges that could imperil Democrats’ general election calculus and path.
Stevens won her way to Congress back in the 2018 midterms by flipping a congressional district from red to blue and helping her party take back control of the House during Trump’s first term as president. That same year, El-Sayed lost a Democratic primary for Michigan governor by more than 20 points.
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Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He’s reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and reported on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.
