AI wasn’t the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025
Richland Parish, Louisiana (CNBC) — Recent analyses suggest that the popular belief in artificial intelligence (AI) as the main driver of U.S. economic growth may be overstated. Despite the AI boom reshaping market valuations and influencing GDP, a report by MRB Partners U.S. economic strategist Prajakta Bhide reveals that consumer spending was actually the biggest driver of GDP growth in 2025.
AI’s Impact on GDP Growth
Bhide’s research shows that AI-related investments contributed around 90 basis points to real GDP growth on average in 2025, but when adjusted for imports, this number decreases to 40-50 basis points. Investments in software and computers were found to be the most significant contributions of AI to GDP growth last year.
Future Economic Outlook
Looking ahead, Bhide expects resilient consumer spending to continue in 2026, supported by further AI investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and stabilization in the U.S. unemployment rate. Despite concerns about income growth and wealth concentration, she remains optimistic about the U.S. consumer’s financial health.
